Trends and Structural Features of Russian Sunflower Oil Exports in the 2025/2026 Season

Russian sunflower oil exports from September 2025 to April 2026 reached 3.3 million tonnes, exceeding the same period a year earlier by 10 %. The most significant contribution to this increase came from shipments in March (0.6 million tonnes) and April (0.4 million tonnes), indicating that export activity was concentrated in the first quarter of 2026 . According to Agroexport estimates, January — April 2026 shipments amounted to 1.3 million tonnes worth 1.7 billion US dollars, reflecting growth of 5 % in physical terms and 23 % — in value terms. This divergence in growth rates points to a stronger price component in export revenue formation, which correlates with global price dynamics in the fats-and-oils market.

Higher growth rates were recorded in the first quarter of 2026 : export volumes totaled 1.36 million tonnes, up 26 % year on year. This rise should be seen as a correction after the downturn observed at the start of the season. From September to February 2025/2026 , exports fell by 14 % versus the same period of the previous year. Thus, the market went through a phase of cyclical adjustment driven by unfavorable economic conditions in the first half of the season.

The key factors behind the negative dynamics early in the season were higher raw material costs (sunflower seed), an increase in the export duty, and a stronger ruble, which reduced the ruble-denominated profitability of shipments. An additional constraint was insufficient infrastructure: limited rail capacity servicing the vegetable-oil terminal in Taman restrained loading volumes. Taken together, these factors created unfavorable conditions for export operations, forcing market participants to adjust production and sales plans.

In the second part of the season, the market environment changed markedly. Rising global sunflower oil prices became the main driver of the recovery in export activity. While in autumn 2025 the price for product shipped from Black Sea ports was 1.13 thousand dollars per tonne, by May 2026 it had reached 1.33 thousand dollars per tonne (per the Center for Price Indices), posting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 %. Improved price competitiveness of Russian product supported stronger demand from key importers.

Particular attention should be paid to shipments to China. In January — March 2026 , deliveries to the PRC rose by 1.5 times year on year, reaching 99.5 thousand tonnes. In parallel, India increased purchases of Russian sunflower oil, partially substituting it for palm oil imports. These trends reflect a redistribution of trade flows in the global fats-and-oils market and the growing role of Russian suppliers in meeting demand across Asian markets. In 2026 , the main buyers of Russian sunflower oil remain India, Turkey, China, Belarus, and Egypt, confirming the stability of the established export geography.

A material impact on export profitability came from a change in the export duty calculation mechanism. In May 2026 , the duty fell to 4.7 thousand rubles per tonne, decreasing by 3.4 times compared with April (16.2 thousand rubles). This followed the government’s decision to raise the base price of sunflower oil from 82.5 thousand to 90.8 thousand rubles per tonne. Since the duty is calculated as 70 % of the difference between the base and the indicative price, an increase in the base parameter reduced the fiscal burden on exporters. Had the previous base price been maintained, the May duty would have been 10.2 thousand rubles per tonne, which would have significantly constrained shipment profitability.

The duty reduction improved processors’ financial performance. Profitability in May 2026 reached 3 %, whereas in April it stood at −7 %. Output in September — April 2026 totaled 4.6 million tonnes versus 4.5 million tonnes a year earlier. Nevertheless, full-season export forecasts remain conservative: OleoScope estimates potential exports at 4.8 million tonnes, and the Oil & Fat Union — at 4.7 million tonnes, below last season’s result (5.1 million tonnes).

Clearly, the recovery in Russian sunflower oil exports in the 2025/2026 season is driven by a combination of favorable pricing conditions and a softer regulatory burden. However, sustainable growth in export potential is only possible if infrastructure bottlenecks are overcome, sales markets are diversified, and mechanisms are introduced to hedge currency and price risks. In the long term, the sector’s key development priority should be higher operational efficiency and stronger competitiveness in global markets through technological modernization and the expansion of logistics infrastructure.

Author: Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of World Economy and World Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Natalia Ivanovna Chovgan.