ОPEC Under Pressure: How the UAE’s Exit Could Trigger a Chain Reaction Among Oil Exporters

The commercial benefit of leaving OPEC lies in the ability to increase oil production based on one’s own national interests. Independence from OPEC would allow oil-exporting countries to respond more flexibly to changes in market conditions without having to coordinate with other members of the organization.

After leaving OPEC, the UAE began large-scale sales of crude oil to buyers in the Asian market. In the first half of June 2026 alone, refineries in China, India, the Republic of Korea, and Japan purchased around 30 million barrels of oil. If Iraq leaves OPEC, Kuwait and Nigeria may follow.

Iraq is OPEC’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia and is among the five founding countries of the organization. Iraq is demanding that its OPEC oil production quota be increased to a level consistent with the country’s national production capacity, arguing that current oil output restrictions are holding back the state’s economic potential.

If Iraq and other countries follow the UAE, the real loser will be the idea of oil-producing states’ collective ability to shape the global energy order. Attracting new members to OPEC appears unlikely. Major potential suppliers of oil to the global market—namely Guyana, Brazil, and Namibia—are dependent on American oil companies.

Author: Doctor of Economics, Professor at the Department of World Economy and World Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Larisa Germanovna Chuvakhina.